Sometimes in life, it’s easy to calculate the odds of something happening.
If you were to toss a standard coin, for example, you know that there’s only two outcomes: heads or tails. So the odds of flicking each is 1:1, or 50%.
If you had a bag of sweets with three flavours in, each distributed in equal numbers – strawberry, orange and lemon, you’d know that there’s a 1:3 chance of picking a strawberry, or 33.3%.
With online scratch cards, however, calculating the odds of winning or losing isn’t as straightforward – these games use a random number generator, which scrambles the probabilities… every card is different, altering how often wins can be expected.
And this can be an issue when it comes to setting expectations, as well as adhering to responsible gambling best practices.
However, the good news is that there’s another metric you can use. The return to player rate (RTP) will give you an idea of your odds of winning on scratch cards.
Here’s a quick guide to get you started.
What is the RTP on Scratch Cards?
The scratch card RTP can act, to some extent, as a guide as to the odds of winning.
The RTP is calculated over long term play of thousands of cards, so should not be treated as an exact expectation of what will happen in your next session – you may win more frequently than the stated RTP, or less frequently.
Scratch card RTP can range dramatically, from 70% all the way up to 95%, so this gives you an idea of the odds at play. As a general rule but by no means a guarantee, the higher the RTP, the better your odds of winning.
The payout structure of physical scratch cards is fixed in place, so you’ll know exactly what you can win from each successful scratch.
But that’s not the case in online scratch cards; particularly with games that feature bonus symbols and multipliers, while games linked to jackpot networks will also pay out prizes that change every day.
So using RTP as a way to calculate scratch card probabilities is the easiest way for players to understand what’s possible.
Comparing Scratch Card Odds to Lottery Odds
A lottery also uses fixed probabilities and payout structures.
People playing the UK National Lottery main draw, for example, know what they will win for each combination – as well as the fixed probability of doing so:
- 3 numbers – 96:1 (payout of 15/1)
- 4 numbers – 2,179:1 (payout of 70/1)
- 5 numbers – 144,414:1 (payout of 875/1)
- 5 numbers + bonus ball – 7.5 million to one (payout of 500,000/1)
- 6 numbers – 45 million to one (payout of around 5 million to one)
As you can see, the lottery has a considerable ‘house edge’!
The same is true of online scratch cards, however there is a fairer balance between your probability of winning and the theoretical odds of doing so.
The odds of winning any prize on a scratch card are considerably less than 96/1, so while the payouts are smaller, the wins are (typically) more frequent.
How Scratch Card Features Affect Win Probability
As we’ve learned, RTP is one of the features that can impact your win probability when playing online scratch cards.
Another is volatility, which generally refers to the frequency with which you can expect to win, as well as the size of the payouts available.
As a general rule of thumb, high volatility dictates that you are theoretically likely to win less often. However, when you do land a win, the prize could be larger in size.
The opposite is true of low volatility games. Here, wins are more frequent than with high volatility scratch cards (but remember the law of randomness, which means this isn’t a 100% guarantee), however the payouts will likely be smaller.
High volatility scratch cards tend to be that way due to the features that they incorporate. These can include multipliers, bonus symbols and side games, each of which offers the possibility of greatly increasing your payout potential.
So, your choice as a player dictates how often – or how much – you could potentially win from a scratch card. High RTP, low volatility cards are the best option for maximising the possibility of small, frequent wins. Low RTP, high volatility games, meanwhile, could serve up infrequent – but nicely sized – payouts.
Whichever type of scratch card you choose, it’s essential that you play responsibly – never chase those big winnings… or your losses, either.
How to Enjoy Online Scratch Cards Responsibly
By understanding scratch card odds, you can manage your expectations of what to expect in your next session.
Depending on your personality type and budget, you can make your choice between low and high RTP games – and consider volatility in that decision, too.
Here at Prime Slots, we have dozens of scratch cards for you to explore. You can use our responsible gaming tools as well to help you stay in control.
